Russia and Ukraine: The More Things Change…

The fear that Russia is prepared to invade Ukraine at any time has the entire world on edge. Most Americans believe the United States should not get involved in whatever aggression occurs, and that makes sense, for the nation has tired of seeing its young men and women die protecting one lost cause after another. The looming conflict is also a reminder that the more things change, the more they remain the same.

How Did We Get Here?

World War II ended in Europe with the surrender of the Nazis on May 7, 1945. The United States and Great Britain, tired of long years of fighting, almost immediately began demobilizing their forces to return their fighting men home.

However, the Soviet Red Army was strong, and entrenched in Germany and Central Europe. They had no intention of leaving, and there was concern that the Soviets would march westward and take control of the European continent. Winston Churchill was so worried he ordered his military to stop demobilizing and preserve whatever German weapons they had in their possession because Britain "…might have to fight the Russians with German help."

Considering the war with Germany had just ended, it was incredulous that Britain and Germany would fight on the same side. It demonstrated the magnitude of the threat Churchill perceived the Red Army to be.

When Churchill Nearly Extended World War II

Days later, Churchill authorized a preemptive, first strike against Russian forces scheduled for July 1, 1945, but British generals warned him it was a suicide mission. The Red Army had two and a half times the number of divisions as the combined Allied forces and double the armored divisions. There was no choice but to scrap the operation.

Stalin Fills the Gap

Meanwhile, the Russians insisted they were only concerned with protecting their own country. In a Pravda interview, Stalin stated, "The Germans made their invasion of the USSR through Finland, Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Hungary…because, at the time, governments hostile to the Soviet Union existed in these countries. What can be surprising," Stalin fumed, "about the fact that the Soviet Union, anxious for its future safety, is trying to see to it that governments loyal in their attitude to the Soviet Union should exist in these countries?"

Stalin was not about to let a golden opportunity go by, regardless of his agreements with Franklin Roosevelt and Churchill at Yalta. The Soviet Union occupied Eastern Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Albania, and Hungary. Stalin forcibly took over these governments and turned them into Russian satellite countries despite having guaranteed free elections in these countries.

The Policy of Containment and the Dawn of the Cold War

George Kennan was a U.S. diplomat stationed in Moscow who was extremely anti-Communist. Responding to a request from a concerned President Truman, on February 22, 1946, Kennan sent a 5,500-word telegram from Moscow, which laid the foundation for how the U.S. would deal with the Soviets during the Cold War. In what was called The Long Telegram. Kennan wrote that the Soviets would never accept "permanent peaceful coexistence," and their goal was to destroy "our traditional way of life."

Kennan introduced the policy of containment, which was based on the premise that the Soviet economy was shaky, unsustainable, and would eventually implode. It became official American policy. The United States essentially supported Allies economically that surrounded the Soviet Union and Red China, installed military bases and missile installations, and waited for the communist governments to inevitably collapse from within.

Unholy Bedfellows

Allen Dulles

During the war, many Eastern Europeans, especially Ukrainians, sided with the Nazis because they believed it was the only way to destroy Bolshevism and return the monarchy to rule Russia.

After the war, the CIA took advantage of these partisan underground armies already in place and trained and financed them in countries behind the Iron Curtain, including Ukraine, as the first line of defense against a potential aggressive Red Army and Soviet expansion.

Reinhard Gehlen

Reinhard Gehlen, the Nazi's head of intelligence on the eastern front during the war, was brought in by future CIA Director Allen Dulles to head the operation.

Because tensions ran so high as both the U.S. and the Soviets thought the other wanted to destroy the other, U.S. intelligence had no qualms about employing the services of a one-time Nazi who was responsible for thousands of needless civilian deaths throughout Eastern Europe.

The Rebirth of the Soviet Bloc?

Vladimir Putin

One wonders if restoring the glory days of the Soviet Union is part of Putin's motivation today. Is his end game to gain control of the old Soviet satellite nations to create a modern-day Eastern bloc headed by Russia? He must be aware it is unlikely Ukraine will ever join NATO, so the idea that this is the reason he is massing troops on the Ukrainian border falls on deaf ears.

Is Putin hoping to negotiate a settlement with the West to gain some concessions in exchange for a non-invasion pledge? Perhaps, but it unlikely the U.S. would deal with a gun pointed at its head, which Putin knows.

Unfortunately, the only logical explanation is that Putin wants to swallow up countries between Russia and Western Europe to recreate his country's buffer when the Soviet Union was in place. If true, the U.S. and its European allies have a significant decision to make, for they do not want another Munich on their hands.

The Inevitable Result?

Appeasement never works. So, at some point, a military confrontation will become inevitable. Maybe in Ukraine, or possibly another country, for the West may once again be forced to stop the advance of the new Russian army.

Hopefully, Putin comes to his senses quickly because something remains the same now as it was during the Cold War: a simple misstep by an overzealous combatant, be he a Russian, Ukrainian, Western European, or American, could plunge the world into World War III.

It is not hard to envision that happening. We are at the point where whatever occurs, the United States and Russia must save face to avoid worldwide humiliation. The longer this affair drags on, the harder it will be for that to be achieved. It means that Russia will be forced to enter Ukraine at some point, which would be disastrous, for it would put the fear of God into Western Europe.

It could take us back to 1945 all over again.